This work provides a global model of the energy system and how to optimize it. Through two main tasks, it will answer the questions:
How much liquid and gaseous energy carriers do we need to feed the Belgian energy system during and after the transition?
What are the most economic scenarios and storage needs (daily, monthly, seasonal) to implement these renewable fuels?
Uncertainties are of two main forms: aleatoric and epistemic. Aleatoric uncertainties generally refer to future events and to our inability to collect more information on them. They are considered irreducible and are very often taken into account for robust optimization and design. Epistemic uncertainties refer to the level of knowledge about the model itself and can be reduced provided we collect more data. A model involving such uncertainties should not only report a single output but a range of outputs instead, along with a probability density function along this range. In this work package, we will answer the question: What are the main uncertainties about the energy systems now and in the future to be considered while optimising the system?
It is divided in three tasks: the two first goes into the details of forward uncertainty propagation of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, while the last task goes backward and uses Bayesian inference as an effective way to update the probability distributions of the inputs.
An important part of this energy system, the electricity network, requires a specific analysis as it will play a major role in the energy transition. In this work package, we aim at answering the question:
How compatible are these carriers with our current energy system, including the grid? What is their impact?
One key aspect of energy storage is the roundtrip efficiency, or how much energy is recovered from what was initially stored. This aspect is the primary drawback of electrofuels because energy is lost at every conversion step. Despite their major advantages, a big research effort should be dedicated in innovative ideas to use them. In this work package we will answer the question: How can we efficiently use electrofuels to retrieve the stored energy?
This question is tackled through three main tasks covering the main use of electrofuels:
1. in decentralized combined heat and power;
2. in centralized power plants using existing assets;
3. through mobility.